Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 5% during the first two months of Q2/25. Revenue grew 2% during the same period.
“Middle market companies continued in the second quarter to demonstrate resilience and adaptability as tariff and tax uncertainty continued. Our data shows revenue and earnings growth in April and May within our sample of U.S. businesses that sell primarily to U.S. customers, which suggests the economy remained on a healthy foundation,” Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said. “The July enactment of the BBB tax bill should strengthen consumer disposable income and confidence. The tariff uncertainty continues to be a drag on business capital expenditure decision making, but the U.S. economy is performing fine. When the tariff situation reaches stability, we expect growth to accelerate.”
“Our data offers a mostly encouraging early read on the performance of U.S. companies in the second quarter. I believe investors will find it particularly informative to observe continued strong average company-level performance as an economic indicator during this period when aggregate GDP calculations and forecasts may be distorted by abnormal and volatile import behavior in anticipation of possible tariffs,” Dr. Edward I. Altman said. “Within the Golub Capital Altman Index, the continued strong revenue and EBITDA growth of the technology sector stands out as evidence that the value proposition of productivity-enhancing, mission-critical B2B software solutions remains compelling in today’s uncertain environment.”
