According to Grant Thornton’s Q2/26 CFO Survey, just 37% of finance leaders are optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next six months, the lowest level recorded in the survey question’s 20-quarter history. At the same time, 67% expect to increase IT and digital transformation spending, highlighting a growing disconnect between investment ambition and confidence in execution.
Dana Lance, national tax solutions, quality and risk leader at Grant Thornton Advisors, says finance leaders are balancing urgency with uncertainty.
“Tariff uncertainty is creating challenges with supply chains, and the oil supply and war have created a lot of the economic uncertainty that we’ve seen in recent weeks,” Lance said.
The survey of nearly 240 finance leaders shows that pessimists now outnumber optimists, while confidence across key performance areas is weakening. Confidence in meeting supply chain needs fell to 43%, and fewer than half (42%) of respondents expressed confidence in meeting cost control goals.
Despite these pressures, CFOs still expect their business to grow. In fact, 68% of finance leaders expect profits to increase over the next 12 months, only slightly down from the previous quarter, as companies continue to invest in transformation initiatives and position themselves for long-term growth.
Technology Investment Rises as Execution Risk Grows
The survey also highlights a widening gap between investment momentum and execution readiness. Nearly half of finance leaders (48%) now cite technology upgrades as a top priority, up 13 percentage points from last quarter.
“These investments require disciplined oversight,” said Mike Hennessey, partner in finance modernization at Grant Thornton Advisors, said. “CFOs need clear processes to confirm return on investment and enforce accountability.”
At the same time, organizations are encountering new challenges tied to the pace of AI adoption, leaving CFOs to navigate a central tension: sustaining investment momentum without compromising operational control.
“This speed is creating pressure across controls, cybersecurity and compliance functions,” Lance added. “Many organizations are not ready to operate at that pace.”
AI Drives Efficiency Gains, but Value Realization Remains Uneven
CFO Survey data also shows that finance leaders are rapidly adopting AI, with 97% of organizations piloting, scaling or fully integrating it into their operations. Yet, according to Grant Thornton’s AI Impact Survey, many organizations are scaling AI faster than their governance, risk and control frameworks can keep pace — reinforcing the execution challenges CFOs are currently navigating.
Even so, that adoption is driving measurable gains in areas such as forecasting, where AI is improving speed and accuracy by incorporating real-time external variables into business planning.
The challenge is translating those gains into scalable enterprise value. While 60% of finance leaders rank technology and AI-driven transformation among their top value creation priorities, many lack a disciplined approach to prioritizing and scaling initiatives.
“Clients are ready to tackle their challenges, but they know real competitive advantage won’t come from back-office automation alone,” Mike Desmond, audit growth leader at Grant Thornton, said. “The leaders pulling ahead are using AI to create new revenue opportunities and build innovative ways to grow.”
However, getting there takes focus. Too often organizations spread themselves thin across multiple AI pilots without clear prioritization, limiting their ability to deliver sustained value across the enterprise.
“When performance doesn’t meet criteria at each stage, leaders need to make decisions based on metrics, not momentum,” Desmond added.
Economic Pressure Intensifies Focus on Cost and Resilience
Finance leaders are navigating a volatile environment shaped by inflation, shifting trade policy and geopolitical disruption. Sixty-seven percent expect inflation to increase over the next 12 months, while a similar share — roughly 66% — report that tariffs, energy disruptions and supply chain challenges will have at least a moderate impact on their business.
In response, organizations are taking concrete steps to strengthen resilience. Sixty-seven percent of finance leaders report making at least moderate changes to cost and efficiency initiatives over the past 12 months.
At the same time, companies are adjusting their operating models to improve flexibility. According to the survey, 30% of finance leaders say they are using nearshoring in Latin America as part of their finance operating model as organizations look to reduce supply chain risk and respond more quickly to disruption.
AI is also reshaping how organizations manage costs, shifting the focus from traditional cost control to cost intelligence by enabling faster insights and more precise, data-driven decision-making across the enterprise.
M&A Activity Rebounds, But With Tighter Discipline
The Q2 survey also indicates a measured recovery in deal activity. Of those finance leaders polled, 42% expect M&A activity to increase over the next 12 months, though only a small share (11%) anticipate significant increases, reflecting a cautious approach after several slower years.
“There is plenty of capital in the market, but buyers are being highly selective,” Paul Edwards, practice lead with Grant Thornton Stax, said. “Rather than underwriting broad expansion, organizations are prioritizing targeted acquisitions that improve efficiency, add AI-enabled capabilities or create a clearer path to value creation. That is where buyer interest is strongest today. Organizational transformation through M&A is more difficult to underwrite.”
