Provident Bank, a New Jersey-based financial institution, has released the results of its Mid-Year Business Outlook Survey, taking stock of business owner sentiment as they navigate a nuanced macroeconomic environment dominated by looming tariffs. This year’s survey revealed positivity around the economy, with lingering concerns around the impact of tariffs and businesses making short-term decisions that reflect this uncertainty.
Business owners believe the economy will grow, yet there is mixed sentiment around tariffs.
Overall, business owners believe the economy will grow in the back half of 2025, yet their view of tariffs is less positive. While the full effect of tariffs has yet to be felt, general sentiment is that they aren’t good for the economy.
- Over 60% of businesses believe the economy will grow over the next six months. Yet, there is a clear level of dissatisfaction with the ongoing tariff policies, as over 55% of respondents believe they’re having a negative impact on the United States.
- Over 70% of respondents are “very” to “moderately” concerned about the impact of tariffs on their businesses. However, the impact to date has been minimal, with over 80% of businesses saying there has been “somewhat of an impact” or “none”.
- When looking at tariffs across the board, over 35% said to keep tariffs in some capacity, 45% said to eliminate them altogether, and just under 20% said to keep them as proposed. Over 50% of respondents said tariffs are making the United States weaker.
Businesses anticipate tariff consequences, though the full effect is yet to be seen.
Most business owners expect tariffs to affect their revenue, with many using careful inventory management and sales promotions to lessen the potential effect. Regarding future planning, respondents noted delaying capital expenditures, and most reported no change in hiring practices.
- Over half of respondents believe that tariffs will, in some capacity, decrease their business’ revenue.
- Responses to inventory adjustments were closely split. 32.55% noted that they have adjusted their inventory levels, and 31.69% are still evaluating.
- Regarding hiring, just under 30% are planning to halt hiring, while nearly 50% say that their hiring plans remain unchanged.
- Most business owners aren’t taking immediate action on sales promotions to account for weaker demand, with 34% taking no action and just over 30% still evaluating.
- The slight majority (41.68%) of respondents are planning to delay major capital expenditures. In addition, just over 37% of businesses expect to pass the cost of tariffs onto their customers, and just under 30% expect to absorb the cost.
“Despite business owners voicing concerns about tariffs, our survey demonstrates a positive growth outlook in the near future,” Bill Fink, executive vice president, chief lending officer at Provident Bank, said. “We’re observing businesses strategically adapting to this environment by proactively managing inventory and planning capital expenditures. At Provident Bank, we deeply understand our clients’ businesses through close partnerships, which allows us to effectively address their unique challenges. We are dedicated to providing the financial support and resources they need to thrive in today’s dynamic lending landscape, leveraging our in-depth knowledge of their operations.”
