Private credit executives who a year ago were focused on new deal flow are now bracing for geopolitical shocks and rising corporate defaults, according to a new survey from SRS Acquiom.
The SRS Acquiom Barometer’s “2026 Credit Markets Pulse” report, released in August, surveyed 50 senior executives at alternative asset management firms across the U.S. and Europe in July. The findings point to a market that has pulled back from expansion mode and toward managing existing portfolios.
Geopolitical risk topped the list of concerns for both private credit and broadly syndicated loans (BSLs), each cited by 28% of respondents as the leading factor over the next 12 months, up from 20% and 17%, respectively, in a similar survey the firm conducted with Debtwire in May 2025.
Rising corporate defaults saw an even steeper climb. Twenty-six percent of respondents named defaults as the top factor facing private credit, compared with just 1% a year earlier.
By contrast, several concerns that dominated last year’s survey have faded. Yield expectations dropped to 8% from 26%, competitive pressure in the BSL market fell to 14% from 30%, and worries over tariff implementation slid to 4% from 20%.
Market Split on Strength
Respondents were evenly divided on the overall health of private credit, with 50% describing it as strong and 50% calling it weakening — a question the survey asked for the first time this year. Most answers clustered around the middle: only five respondents called the market “very strong,” and three called it “significantly weakening.”
The report found a notable divide by strategy concentration. Among the 18 respondents with more than 75% of assets allocated to credit strategies, 72% characterized private credit as strong. Among the 22 respondents with between a quarter and half of assets in credit strategies, 77% called it weakening.
Opportunity Shifts to Existing Loans
More than half of respondents, 56%, pointed to refinancing, repricing, restructuring or amendments — rather than new originations — as the best opportunity over the next 12 to 24 months. Refinancing and repricing each drew 28% of responses, as did restructuring and amendments.
The report noted that European respondents were twice as likely as their U.S. counterparts to point to emerging markets as an opportunity area, 16% versus 8%.
Overall, 70% of respondents said their focus for the year ahead would be on optimizing existing portfolios — through refinancing, restructuring or portfolio management — while just 30% pointed to new M&A, emerging markets or the leveraged market.
Banks Re-Enter the Picture
The survey also found a shift in how respondents view competition between private credit and commercial banks. Just 30% now believe private credit growth has come at the expense of banks, down from nearly half a year ago. Twenty percent expect banks to use syndicated loans to refinance private credit deals, up sharply from 1% in the 2025 survey.
Increasing competition, which ranked eighth among nine risks to private credit loans a year ago, ranked first this year, cited by 40% of respondents.
New Pressures, Regional Divides
Asked about emerging pressures for the first time, respondents ranked liquidity and redemption pressure highest at 36%, following a string of high-profile private credit redemptions over the past year. Technology-related disruption to portfolio companies, including AI-driven pressure on software and software-as-a-service borrowers, followed at 28%.
The survey also revealed a widening transatlantic gap on regulation. Support for improved regulatory reporting standards fell to 64% overall, down from 85% a year ago. U.S. support dropped more sharply, to 56% from 81%, while European support eased more modestly, to 72% from 88%.
U.S. and European respondents also diverged on the biggest hurdles to growth. U.S. respondents were far more likely to cite underwriting quality, ranking it in their top two concerns 41% of the time compared with 4% in Europe. European respondents instead pointed to illiquidity and limited transparency in the secondary market.
Illiquidity premiums and a limited secondary market ranked as the top overall growth hurdle, cited by 44% of respondents, displacing regulatory scrutiny, which led last year’s survey at 37% but fell to third this year at 27%.
About the Survey
SRS Acquiom surveyed 50 senior credit market professionals — 25 based in Europe and 25 in the U.S. — in late July. Respondents included lenders and debt providers, financial advisors and consultants, financial sponsors and borrowers, and law firms. Year-over-year comparisons are drawn from the 2025 Credit Markets Outlook, published by SRS Acquiom and Debtwire, which surveyed 150 professionals split evenly between the U.S. and Western Europe in May 2025. SRS Acquiom said the results should be viewed as qualitative and directional.
