Executive Summary: The Q3/2026 J.S. Held Lending Climate in America survey finds US lenders are becoming increasingly cautious as geopolitical instability, recession concerns and broader economic uncertainty intensify. Survey respondents reported weaker expectations for both near-term and long-term economic performance, continued selectivity in underwriting larger loans and heightened focus on risk management. At the same time, borrowers continue to pursue growth initiatives, including product development, capital investment, market expansion and hiring, creating a lending environment characterized by both opportunity and increased discipline.
Global consulting firm J.S. Held today published the results of its Q3/26 Lending Climate in America survey, offering insight into how US lenders are assessing economic conditions, credit risk, borrower activity, and market expectations. The latest findings point to a lending environment marked by growing caution. Concerns regarding geopolitical instability, recession risk, and policy uncertainty remain elevated, while lender expectations for both near-term and longer-term economic performance have weakened. Despite this more guarded outlook, borrowers continue to pursue investment and expansion initiatives, highlighting a notable disconnect between lender sentiment and borrower activity.
The Q3/26 J.S. Held Lending Climate in America survey finds US lenders turning more cautious: the near-term US economic performance grade fell to 1.96 from 2.26, and the long-term grade to 2.04 from 2.33. Geopolitical risk/war (39.9%) and US recession (30.4%) led near-term concerns, Financial Services topped volatility expectations and 56% of lenders plan to maintain loan structures while borrowers continue investing in new products, capital, markets, and hiring.
Review the complete findings from the Q3/26 J.S. Held Lending Climate in America survey here.
Lenders Grow More Cautious About the Economic Outlook
The survey found a meaningful decline in lender expectations for both the next six months and the period beyond. Weighted average economic outlook scores fell from Q2 levels, while the percentage of respondents assigning below-average grades to the US economy increased across both time horizons. Recession concerns also remained among the most frequently cited risks affecting the economy.
“The Q3 results indicate lenders are approaching the market with a heightened awareness of downside risk,” said J.S. Held Senior Managing Director and Strategic Advisory Practice Lead, Michael Jacoby. “While capital remains available for well-positioned borrowers, lenders are placing greater emphasis on disciplined underwriting, liquidity strength, and resilience in uncertain economic conditions. The survey suggests that risk management has become as important as growth in current lending decisions.”
Geopolitical and Recession Concerns Continue to Shape Decision-Making
Geopolitical Risk/War remained the most frequently cited factor expected to affect the economy in the coming six months, while concerns regarding a potential US recession ranked second. Policy risk, political uncertainty, debt-related concerns, and stock market stability also remained prominent among respondents. Collectively, the findings suggest lenders continue to evaluate a broad range of risks extending beyond traditional credit fundamentals.
“What stands out in this quarter’s results is the persistence of geopolitical concerns alongside growing recession expectations,” said Livia Paggi, Senior Managing Director and political risk and business intelligence expert at J.S. Held. “Many of the risks lenders identified are interconnected. Geopolitical tensions increasingly influence economic forecasts, trade dynamics, supply chains, commodity markets, and investment decisions, making them a more central consideration in financial planning and risk assessment.”
Borrowers Continue Investing Despite Greater Economic Uncertainty
While lender sentiment became more cautious, respondents reported that their customers continue to pursue growth-oriented initiatives. Introducing new products and services, raising additional capital, making capital investments, entering new markets, and hiring employees were among the most frequently cited customer priorities. Acquisition activity remained comparatively limited, suggesting organizations continue to favor organic growth and internal investment strategies.
The contrast between lender caution and borrower expansion plans indicates that many companies remain committed to long-term growth opportunities despite a more uncertain economic backdrop.
Underwriting Remains Selective as Risk Management Takes Priority
Although maintaining existing loan structures remained the most common response across all loan categories, lenders continued to demonstrate greater conservatism toward larger credits. Tightening remained most prevalent among loans exceeding $25 million, while smaller loans saw comparatively greater willingness to relax lending terms.
“Capital has not disappeared from the market, but lenders are becoming increasingly selective in how they deploy it,” said Kevin Doyle, Director in J.S. Held’s Strategic Advisory practice. “Borrowers who can clearly demonstrate financial performance, operational stability, and preparedness are likely to be better positioned in this environment. The survey reflects a market where underwriting standards remain disciplined even as competition for certain opportunities persists.”
Volatility Expectations Broaden Across Industries
Financial Services remained the industry most frequently identified as likely to experience volatility in the coming six months, followed by Energy and Power, Consumer Products and Services, Agriculture, and Real Estate. The results suggest lenders expect potential disruption across a wide range of sectors rather than concentrating risk within a single portion of the economy.
Interest Rate Expectations Remain Balanced
Respondents’ expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy remained relatively stable compared with Q2. While more lenders continued to anticipate some degree of rate increases than decreases, the overall distribution of responses remained balanced, resulting in a weighted average expectation that was essentially unchanged from the prior quarter. The findings point to a more measured and data-dependent outlook for monetary policy than was evident earlier in 2026.
Experienced Support for Complex Business Challenges
When organizations, lenders, investors, and stakeholders face decisions that materially affect enterprise value, J.S. Held provides strategic, financial, and operational expertise to help clients evaluate risk, navigate uncertainty, and make informed decisions. Through its Strategic Advisory practice, J.S. Held helps clients address evolving credit conditions, restructuring challenges, liquidity concerns, operational issues, and complex stakeholder matters.
