Global law firm Norton Rose Fulbright and Mergermarket launched the fourth edition of their Global M&A Trends and Risks 2026 report, highlighting renewed confidence among dealmakers for the year ahead despite ongoing geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty.
Responses show that 52% of business executives polled expect global dealmaking to increase in 2026 relative to 2025, including 20% who forecast a significant increase. This is a notable uptick from last year’s survey findings, in which just 38% expected M&A activity to rise.
Technology is on top as AI reshapes deal strategies: Technology is set to lead growth in cross-border M&A in 2026, with 67% of respondents ranking it as the top sector for expansion, well ahead of industrials and energy. AI continues to stand out, with 78% of respondents expecting it to offer the most attractive dealmaking opportunities this year, up from 60% in 2025.
Reflecting that trend, 24% of respondents–rising to 38% among private equity participants–are looking to acquire businesses that make significant use of AI, while another 14% are targeting pure-play AI companies.
Private equity dry powder and private credit underpin deal momentum: A glut of private equity dry powder is expected to drive deal activity in 2026, with 48% of respondents naming it as a top-three driver of global M&A. This ranks alongside industry consolidation (45%) and disposals of non-core assets (37%) as key forces shaping the market.
At the same time, financing conditions are evolving. Eighty-six% of respondents say private credit will remain a key source of M&A financing over the next two years, while exactly half expect financing to become easier to secure, including 19% who anticipate it becoming significantly easier.
Regional trends point to selective optimism: The United States and Europe are expected to be among the strongest M&A markets in 2026, with 48% and 43% of survey respondents, respectively, anticipating a significant increase in deal activity for each region. In Asia Pacific, confidence is improving, driven by consolidation, supply chain resilience and non-core disposals. Canada also stands out, with 57% expecting M&A activity to increase, making it one of the most positive regions globally.
Valuation gaps forecast as greatest barrier: Valuation gaps are forecast to be by far the biggest obstacle to completing M&A deals in the year ahead, cited by 48% of respondents as a top-three challenge. This places them ahead of geopolitical uncertainty (39%) and financing constraints (37%).
This is the first time in recent years that valuation gaps have emerged as respondents’ primary concern. Antitrust is the most cited regulatory obstacle, receiving an average of 35% of top-two responses across all regions, followed by sanctions and anti-corruption policies (32%) then FDI regulations (26%).
Use of deal insurance expected to increase: More than half (58%) of respondents expect the use of R&W/W&I insurance to increase in 2026 compared with last year, including 32% who anticipate a significant increase. This is particularly evident in South and Southeast Asia and Africa.
“After a period of disruption, we are seeing a clear return to disciplined, strategy-driven transactions,” Raj Karia, global head of corporate, M&A and securities at Norton Rose Fulbright, said. “While geopolitical and regulatory pressures remain, dealmakers are adapting their approaches, whether through financing, structuring or targeted investments in areas such as AI. The overall shift is positive, with strong fundamentals supporting increased activity in 2026.”
Scarlet McNellie, U.S. head of corporate, M&A and securities at Norton Rose Fulbright, added, “Dealmaking in 2026 is being shaped by a more pragmatic focus on value, structure and sector-specific opportunities. Private equity capital continues to play an important role, particularly in areas such as technology and life sciences where growth and innovation remain key drivers.”
