Dykema’s 2026 M&A Outlook Survey depicts a dealmaking landscape marked by growing caution. Among the executives, bankers, private equity leaders and advisors surveyed, just over half expect U.S. M&A activity to strengthen over the next 12 months, down from 74% last year.
Familiar obstacles such as economic uncertainty, valuation gaps and financing costs are proving harder to shake this time around. Capital is still available, but the gap is widening between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers believe their businesses are worth.
AI is one of the few areas where dealmakers are still leaning in. Once viewed mainly as a tool for moving through transactions more efficiently, AI has fast become a reason deals happen at all. Data centers and digital infrastructure (38%) and technology (32%) top the list of industries expected to see the most M&A activity this year, a sign that buyers are pursuing the physical and digital backbones of AI rather than just the software built on top of it.
Meanwhile, dealmakers continue to use AI in their own processes, with 63% saying due diligence is where it adds the most value. Trust, however, hasn’t kept pace: accuracy and reliability (38%) top respondents’ concerns, followed by an over-reliance on AI and the de-skilling of dealmakers (27%) and data privacy (23%).
“M&A players are being more selective this year, but they haven’t stopped looking for potential deals,” Joe DeHondt, co-leader of Dykema’s M&A practice, said. “The survey’s AI findings reflect both sides of that coin. On the one hand, the technology is the foundation for some of the most active parts of the market; on the other, dealmakers are still working out how much they can rely on it in their own work. There’s real opportunity out there, and real hesitation too, and this year’s results exemplify both.”
Additional key findings include:
- Buyers and sellers remain far apart on price. Just 41% expect price expectations to align this year, even as nearly half cite capital availability as a top driver of activity.
- Private equity’s focus is shifting from deploying capital to returning it. With hold periods stretching and portfolio companies aging, sponsors face growing pressure to exit investments and deliver distributions to investors.
- Tariffs are complicating cross-border deals. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect tariffs to delay or restructure cross-border transactions, and a growing share expect regulators to become more involved before year’s end.
- Deal insurance is adapting to AI. More than 4 in 10 expect representations and warranties policies to expand to address AI-related risks, and roughly a quarter expect underwriting to become more rigorous as a result.
- Healthcare, manufacturing and financial services round out the most active sectors for M&A. Behind data centers and technology, respondents expect the most activity in healthcare (29%), industrial and manufacturing (24%) and financial services (22%).
