Lenders Provide Outlooks on Private Credit in 2026: Discipline Over Hype

Morgan Stanley, S&P Global, Moody’s, BlackRock, Preqin, and Flatbay Capital outlined market observations about the private credit market:

1. 2026 will be driven by refinancings, not growth capital: Maturities, repricing and balance-sheet adjustments are expected to generate more demand than new expansion lending.
2. Bank capital is still available, but not for every borrower: Underwriting standards are tightening, with structure and collateral quality increasingly repriced to market.
3. Workouts remain part of the playbook: As the amendment-and-extend cycle matures, lenders are increasingly moving from deferral to resolution.
4. Not every credit fits inside a bank box: Regulatory pressure, capital dynamics and internal risk limits continue to leave otherwise viable borrowers temporarily unbankable.

2026 will favor lenders who can deliver time, flexibility and certainty. Private credit is here to bridge businesses back to bankability.