Only two of the ten consumer-related industries are projected to post positive results. The Broadline Retail sector and Hotels, Restaurant & Leisure sector demonstrate the highest estimated earnings growth rates for the quarter at 36.1% and 6.7% respectively, compared to last year’s figures. These projections align with recent U.S. retail sales data indicating 4.8% year-over-year growth in online shopping and dining/bar patronage.
The Q1 2025 forecast confirms that consumers continue to gravitate toward experiences rather than traditional mall visits.
As retailers begin reporting Q1 2025 earnings, 34 companies have issued negative preannouncements, while only four have provided positive EPS guidance. Regarding revenue guidance, 47 retailers warned of disappointing results, with just seven indicating potentially better-than-expected revenue. This ratio is notable, as typically at least 10 positive preannouncements are seen for both earnings and revenue metrics.
Approximately 80% of retailers discussed tariff impacts during their most recent earnings calls. Additional factors cited include a slow start to 2025, concerns about higher prices, challenging macroeconomic conditions, and cautious consumer spending behavior.
For more detailed information, please refer to the full report.
