Middle market business leaders remain resilient despite economic uncertainty, according to J.P. Morgan’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey. Compared with the start of the year, optimism for the national economy fell by more than half, dropping from 65% as reported in January, to 32% in June. In line with these findings, there was an increase in recession expectations among business leaders: 25% of respondents expect a recession in 2025, up from 8%.
There are a number of external factors impacting business plans, with 44% of leaders reporting they delayed their plans to some extent. Among those reporting changes to their plans, top factors include:
- Policy uncertainty (74%)
- Market volatility (37%)
- Shifts in customer demand (37%)
- Geopolitical events (35%)
Overall, the top three challenges facing companies are uncertain economic conditions (55%), tariffs (41%) and revenue and sales growth (41%).
Despite the decline in economic optimism, confidence in individual business performance remains strong. Business leaders are resolute in their strategic planning, with many not altering their strategies despite external challenges. Forty percent of leaders report that they are not making any changes to their plans, and 14% have accelerated plans. The majority (85%) of respondents are projecting steady to increased company performance through the end of the year. Additional performance expectations include:
- 78% expect revenue and sales to increase or remain the same
- 73% expect profits to increase or remain the same
- 37% plan to increase headcount, while 45% plan to keep headcount the same
“Businesses are operating with caution in the current environment,” Matt Sable, co-head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking, said. “Leaders are recalibrating where necessary to ensure they can continue to deliver for their clients and communities, highlighting their resilience and determination.”
