Middle market leaders are entering 2026 with a “proceed with purpose” mindset. Despite a choppy geopolitical backdrop and a looming cloud of policy shifts, JPMorgan’s latest Business Leaders Outlook report reveals a sector that is surprisingly resilient — and ready to spend.
For the equipment finance and specialty finance sectors, the takeaway is clear: the appetite for capital is there, but the math behind the deals is getting more complicated.
Confidence Amidst the Noise
The headline numbers remain robust. Of the nearly 1,500 executives surveyed, 71% remain optimistic about their own company’s trajectory for the coming year. This confidence isn’t just sentiment; it’s backed by growth projections, with 73% of leaders expecting revenue gains and 64% forecasting higher profits.
However, there is a widening gap between how these leaders feel about their own shops versus the broader global economy. While their internal outlook is bright, external pressures — specifically trade policy — are forcing a tactical pivot.
The Tariff Factor
Tariffs have moved from a theoretical “headwind” to a primary cost driver. According to the data, 61% of respondents are already feeling a moderate to significant pinch in their bottom lines due to trade levies.
For equipment lessors, this is the trend to watch. As input costs rise, we are likely to see a shift in borrower behavior. Instead of massive upfront capital outlays for new fleets, expect more companies to lean on used equipment, life-extension overhauls, and financing structures that prioritize liquidity. The survey highlights a growing “unevenness” — while manufacturers are feeling the heat, 30% of the market remains relatively untouched, making sector-specific expertise a critical tool for underwriters this year.
M&A and the AI Inflection Point
The “wait-and-see” approach to growth appears to be ending. M&A activity is back on the menu, with 39% of firms planning acquisitions — an 8% jump over last year. This surge suggests a busy year for lenders involved in sponsor-backed deals and structured credit.
Simultaneously, AI has graduated from the “hype” phase to the “integration” phase. Over 60% of leaders are now deploying AI for automation and predictive analytics. For the finance community, this shift is two-fold: it changes what kind of equipment needs financing (think data-heavy infrastructure and software-integrated assets) and offers a potential goldmine for better borrower reporting and transparency.
A Tale of Two Markets
Perhaps the most striking finding is the divergence between traditional firms and the “innovation economy.” While traditional middle-market players are worried about costs, venture-backed and high-growth firms are worried about access. 40% of these high-growth leaders cited capital availability as their number one hurdle, compared to just 7% of their more established peers.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 landscape isn’t about a retreat; it’s about discipline. Business leaders are still swinging for the fences, but they are doing so with a much sharper eye on policy risks and operational efficiency. For specialty finance providers, the opportunity lies in being the partner that helps them navigate that complexity.
