Daily News: January 8, 2013

Phoenix Survey Shows Shift in Volatile Industries

From the Q4/12 Phoenix Management “Lending Climate in America” Survey, results show that retail trade and finance and insurance industries supplanted construction for the first time in two years as those industries that are most likely to experience volatility.

When asked to identify three industries that will experience the most volatility in the next six months, 48% of lenders agree that retail trade will experience the greatest volatility. This is a nine percentage point increase over last quarter (39%).

Finance and insurance followed close behind with 38% of respondents (a jump of 12 points from Q3/12). Construction landed in third place with 28% of lender responses. The last quarter survey reported that construction had a majority response of 61%.

“This is an interesting shift from lenders,” says Michael Jacoby, Phoenix senior managing director and shareholder. “The results surprised me a bit. I know that home prices have seen a recent uptick, but it is unusual to see the construction industry drop to third place.”

The survey also found lenders this quarter believe an uptick of bankruptcies and loan losses are on the horizon. These two categories increased by eight percentage points and two percentage points respectively. There was also a five percentage point increase in those lenders who feel unemployment will increase as well.

To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, click here.

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