Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index experienced year-over-year earnings growth of 9% and revenue growth of 11% during the first two months of Q4/22.

“This quarter’s results are a positive surprise; revenue and profit growth each exceeded inflation by significant margins,” Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said. “We believe these strong results reflect both stronger U.S. economic conditions than many analysts expect and Golub Capital’s focus on lending to recession-resilient companies backed by private equity owners who adapt nimbly to changing conditions.”

“The fourth quarter of 2022 across all four sectors we track was stronger than expected, which suggests that the odds of an economic soft landing could be higher than they looked in the third quarter,” Dr. Edward I. Altman said. “The strength in the consumer sector and industrials sector earnings suggests supply chains are getting back to normal and pressure from higher energy costs is abating. That said, we are still seeing the impact of rising wages in labor-intensive sectors, notably healthcare.”

The Golub Capital Altman Index, which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with Altman, is based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA) for middle-market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110 to 150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital.