Daily News: December 18, 2012

NABE: Modest But Accelerating Growth in 2013


In its latest survey of top forecasters, the National Association for Business Economics said economists believe the country will see modest growth in 2013 with strength coming from a further rebound in housing which will help offset weakness in business investment.

“The panelists expect modest growth in the economy in 2013 as a whole, which accelerates steadily as the year progresses,” said Dr. Nayantara Hensel, chair of the NABE Outlook Survey and professor of Industry and Business at National Defense University. “The panelists forecast little improvement in consumption growth, significantly reduced growth in investments in nonresidential structures, equipment, and software, and reduced growth in corporate profits and industrial production.”

The following highlights were excerpted from the NABE news release:

  • Panelists do not anticipate a significant improvement in annual average growth in real GDP for 2013 relative to 2012, but suggest that stable, moderate growth will continue. They forecast that annual average growth for real GDP will be 2.2% in 2012 and 2.1% in 2013. Nevertheless, they expect that the annualized growth in GDP will increase significantly during 2013, such that it will reach 3% by the fourth quarter of 2013.
  • Panelists suggest that the high growth in nonresidential structures and in nonresidential equipment and software is likely to slacken in 2013 relative to 2012, although the strong growth in residential investment is likely to continue. Panelists forecast that growth in nonresidential structures will slow from 9.2% in 2012 to 3.1% in 2013 and that growth in nonresidential equipment and software will moderate from 6.6% in 2012 to 5% in 2013. Residential investment will continue to grow at 12% in 2013.

    To read the NABE news release click here.